CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2023-11-16T03:48:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2023-11-16T03:48ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/27722/-1
CME Note: CME visible in the NW of SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. Source is seen as dimming centered around N15W15 starting around 2023-11-16T00:34Z in SDO AIA 193. This eruption is also seen in STEREO A EUVI 195 imagery near disk center. Overlaps in the field of view of the coronagraphs with CME: 2023-11-16T04:24Z, which is believed to have originated on the back side. Arrival signature: Characterized by a jump in B_total from around 5.6 nT to a peak of 14.55 nT, with Bz remaining largely neutral with a short southward spike to -5 nT. An increase in density and small spike in temperature and solar wind speed to about 340 km/s are also observed. A separate enhancement in the magnetic field components, possibly associated with the same CME event, is observed leading up to this event seen best from 2023-11-20T05:00Z onward with a gradual increase in B_total up to around 12 nT. Around 2023-11-20T09:12Z, Bt swiftly drops down to around 5-6 nT prior to this arrival.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-11-20T09:49Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-11-20T02:40Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 70.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.5 - 4.5
Prediction Method: Average of all Methods
Prediction Method Note:
This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CMELead Time: 66.37 hour(s)
Difference: 7.15 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Auto Generated (CCMC) on 2023-11-17T15:27Z
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